Past me put 5% annual rent growth into a 2022 multifamily deal like it was a law of physics. Present me is explaining to the investment committee why "trough" is a temporary word. If you're reading this in 2026 underwriting 4%+, I'm begging you, don't.
2022 underwriting was a collective fever dream. We ALL put 5% in. The honest ones are the ones admitting it now.
"Trough is a temporary word" is the kind of thing you say to an IC right before you ask for more time and a reserve draw.
Cap rates tortured until they confess, exit assumptions that age like milk, and the hybrid worker who isn’t coming back.
＋ New threadMarkets, deals, and the group chat — for people who read the footnotes.