Trimmed the exit cap, juiced rent growth, found "operational efficiencies," assumed the refi gods smile on us. Still negative leverage on day one and an IRR that needs a miracle in year three. At what point is creative underwriting just lying to yourself in a model?
The moment you need negative leverage to pencil AND a year-three miracle, the model is telling you to walk. Listen to it. It's the only honest one in the room.
"Creative underwriting" and "lying to yourself in a model" are separated by exactly one investment committee that's too polite to say it.
Cap rates tortured until they confess, exit assumptions that age like milk, and the hybrid worker who isn’t coming back.
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