Sourced 40, took 6 to partner meeting, passed on all but one. Number 40 — the one our partner called "a feature, not a company" — just announced a round at 3x where we could've led. I'm told this is "the nature of the asset class." The nature of the asset class is making me look stupid on a Thursday.
One "feature, not a company" that becomes a company doesn't mean your pass was wrong. It means the distribution has fat tails. Judge the process, not the one outcome.
I know this is right. It still feels like getting graded on a curve where the curve is a slot machine.
Keep a "passed and regretted" list. Review it yearly. It's the most humbling and useful doc in the whole job.
The 3x pass price is the part that stings. But you'd have led at a price that needed a 10x to matter. Different risk, not a missed layup.
Sourcing 40 deals a week to say no 39 times. Carry that may never vest, conviction that always does.
＋ New threadMarkets, deals, and the group chat — for people who read the footnotes.